Real Estate Market Near Bottom, Not Even Close

April 4, 2008

It’s difficult to see any upside to the US real estate market. Unless of course you’re a buyer. Last month it was reported that foreclosures are up a staggering 60% from the same month a year ago.

Even worse it was recently reported that housing prices have a long way down to go. One expert (The CEO of Fannie May, no less) predicts that housing prices have only fallen 30% as far as they will go. That means the pain has only just begun!

Hard to imagine real estate prices falling another 70%, but one things for sure, it’s a rough time to be a seller.

On a personal note, we recently sold one of our (non-investment) homes in Asheville, NC. We bought the house about two years ago, near the market peak. We sold it for about 20% less than we paid. Like many sellers, we were happy to have sold the domain even at a loss.


Foreclosure mess expected to get worse

December 11, 2007

Over the last several weeks numerous sources have reported that the foreclosure situation is bad and expected to get far worse.    Even in states like New Hampshire which wasn’t as effected by the real estate boom as say California,  it’s expected that 6,000 will face foreclosure this year and potentially more next year.

California is probably the hardest hit state due to the huge number of highly leveraged investor purchases.   Foreclosure Listings for California on FreeForeclosureDatabase.com currently number greater than 10,000.

Two questions come to mind:

Have we reached the bottom of the market?   If not, how much further down will the market go before we reach the bottom?

And

What effect will a government bail out have on the real estate market?

My belief is that we’re far from a bottom in real estate.   I’ve read several estimates that the market needs to correct 30% or more before we hit bottom.   The last report I saw said that prices have only dropped by <6% so far.   If that’s correct we are at the very beginning of this corrections and there’s going to be a lot more foreclosure listings before this is all said and done.

Regarding a government bailout… it’s too soon to tell.   I think it’s a horrible idea in general.  My small government feelings aside, the plan hasn’t been fully revealed so there are a lot of gaps to fill in.   It could help provide some support for housing prices, but it will certainly have unintended consequences which will likely only push the reckoning day down the road a little further.


Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double

October 11, 2007

Every month it gets worse and there’s no relief in sight as the biggest batch of adjustable rate resets are still yet to occur.   Credit markets are frozen, people are over spent and the pain has just begun to be felt.  The perceived wealth of American households is evaporating as  home foreclosures double.

Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double: Financial News – Yahoo Finance
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago